With Mikel Merino’s 91st minute winner, Spain snuck through the revolving Round of 16 door just before they were escorted into extra time by Portugal. Gliding through the middle of the pitch at just the right time to make manager Luis de la Fuente look like a genius for putting not only the Basque midfielder on, but also his provider Ferran Torres. Not since 1950 have either Portugal or Spain beaten the other by more than a single goal in a competitive game, and whether de la Fuente’s side were conscious of that particular run or not, perhaps those thin margins were part of their blueprint for the match.
If you do cycle through the archives of this slightly viscous encounter, you will see more breaks from Spain, more chances, more shots, and you might recall a much more entertaining first half, before a slower rhythm seeped in. Sometimes football’s elusive arbiter of ‘deserving’ can be deceptive, but Spain’s 1.78 total of expected goals feels fitting, and that doesn’t include the numerous unclaimed balls flashed across the Portuguese box.
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¡Viva San Fermín y viva @mikelmerino1!! #VamosEspaña | #CopaMundialFIFA pic.twitter.com/5yl38qb5K3
— Selección Española Masculina de Fútbol (@SEFutbol) July 6, 2026
Once again though, if there’s something that stands out about the Spain performance, it’s the relative lack of jeopardy. A deflected Nuno Mendes effort, and a late header from Bernardo Silva notwithstanding, Spain’s fans had few opportunities for anguished gasps. Portugal troubled La Roja more than any of their previous four opponents, but the reality is, they could scarcely have done less. The 0.58 expected goals delivered by Cristiano Ronaldo and co. didn’t quite reach the 0.78 survived by Spain against Austria, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde put together, and La Roja now have five clean sheets in a row too.
There is no doubt that for the third time in five games though, Spain also felt rather unimpressive going forward. At times, conservative, at others, lacking in weapons. Even if Dani Olmo’s apparitions behind the Portuguese midfield were perhaps the best of Spain’s attacks, La Roja ignored many more passes into the same area. Reluctant to play the pass they saw first, Spain were considered in every pass they made centrally, to be kind. Timid would be another word.
“Whoever thinks we’re going to win without suffering is in the wrong,” Rodri Hernandez chastised after the match, “we showed maturity.” Perhaps that is the key difference between this Spain side and the first edition we saw under de la Fuente. The figure of Nico Williams grows larger with every passing game, the absence of his pace and directness keenly felt, opposite Lamine Yamal – it feels like he feels he has to do it all sometimes. They were the faces of a young, charismatic football team that was comfortable in a shoot-out and challenged opponents to keep up with them. Against Portugal, Opta say just 36 of their 531 passes were ‘long’ (6.8%), and long gone are the sweeping switches from one flank to another – that figure was at 17% in the Euro 2024 final against England.
It was especially jarring that when the teenage protege flashed several good balls across the box, Mikel Oyarzabal, who prides himself on being punctual in the box, wasn’t even late, but not present at all. A look at Opta’s pass map shows Oyarzabal deeper than both Lamine Yamal and Alex Baena, level with Olmo – another midfielder. So bizarre was the Basque’s lack of runs between Portugal’s centre-backs that the only conclusion is that de la Fuente deliberately had him deeper. His hunting was to be done after turnovers, his job was to ensure Portugal’s counter-attacks were meandering.
If the quarter-finals leave us with a final four of favourites, then Spain are on course for a date with France, the side with the largest and most grisly arsenal in the competition. Conscious that some of their own firepower is reduced, the argument could be made that Spain’s more ‘mature’ approach comes with one eye on a meeting with France. Spain were comfortable against Austria and Saudi Arabia, able to express themselves with a clear gap between the sides, but in every other game, ensured they were in control of a game of few chances. There’s a reasonable argument that might be Spain’s best shot of overcoming Didier Deschamps’ seemingly endless weaponry. Or maybe that’s giving Spain too much credit.
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